If you hold a variable-rate mortgage or are about to renew one, the Bank of Canada’s next policy decision is more than a statistic — it could reshape your monthly budget. The central bank held its overnight rate at 2.25% on March 18, 2026, and markets are pricing a 96% chance it stays there when the next announcement arrives on April 29, 2026. Here’s what that means for your wallet and what to watch as 2026 unfolds.

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Current Overnight Target Rate: 2.25% ·
Bank Rate: 2.50% ·
Deposit Rate: 2.00% ·
Last Update: March 2026 ·
Next Potential Announcement: April 2026

Quick snapshot

1Confirmed facts
2What’s unclear
  • Whether rate hikes will materialize in the second half of 2026
  • Exact timing and magnitude of any post-April rate adjustments
  • How much oil-price inflation will persist through Q2 2026
3Timeline signal
4What’s next
  • Markets price 96% likelihood of holding at 2.25% on April 29 (WOWA.ca)
  • Scotiabank forecasts three hikes in H2 2026 (Mortgage Sandbox)
  • 33% of mortgage holders face higher payments by end of 2026 (nesto.ca)
Metric Value
Overnight Rate Target 2.25%
Bank Rate 2.50%
Deposit Rate 2.00%
Last Decision April 2026
Announcement Frequency 8 per year

When is the next Bank of Canada overnight rate?

The Bank of Canada releases its overnight rate decision eight times per year, roughly every six weeks. The most recent announcement took place on March 18, 2026, when the policy rate was maintained at 2.25%.

Announcement schedule

The next scheduled announcement falls on April 29, 2026. Market pricing currently assigns a 96% probability to the rate remaining unchanged at that meeting, according to CORRA forward contracts analyzed by WOWA.ca.

Historical decision dates

To track past rate changes, the Bank of Canada offers a publicly available historical tool at banqueducanada.ca. This allows borrowers and analysts to review every decision date and the corresponding rate level going back years.

Bottom line: The next opportunity for a rate change is April 29, 2026. Barring a dramatic shift in economic data, the 2.25% hold appears nearly certain at that meeting.

When will the Bank of Canada announce its next overnight rate change?

While the Bank has not signaled any deviation from its planned eight annual announcements, economists are closely watching the second half of 2026 for potential adjustments.

Upcoming dates for 2026

The official calendar confirms eight announcement dates for 2026, with April 29 being the next in sequence. Beyond that, markets are pricing the first meaningful probability of a hike for Q4 2026, around October 28.

Recent patterns

The Bank moved aggressively in 2025, cutting rates multiple times to support a slowing economy. That rapid cutting phase is over. The Bank is now in a wait-and-see mode, with the next move likely to be a hike rather than a cut, according to Mortgage Sandbox analysis.

The upshot

The pattern since late 2025 has shifted decisively. After a series of cuts, the Bank appears prepared to hold rates steady and potentially resume tightening if inflation pressures persist.

What are the Bank of Canada overnight rate forecasts for 2026?

Major banks and forecasters largely agree that the policy rate will remain at 2.25% through 2026, but they diverge on what happens thereafter.

Expert predictions

RBC Economics forecasts the rate staying at 2.25% throughout 2026, then rising to 3.25% by the end of 2027. National Bank takes a more conservative view, expecting a 0.5% increase in Q4 2026, reaching 2.75% by mid-2027. Scotiabank is the most aggressive, projecting three rate hikes in the second half of 2026.

Influencing factors

Core inflation ranged between 2.5% and 2.8% in January 2026, above the Bank’s 2% target. March 2026 inflation reached 2.4%, which the Bank characterized as a temporary oil-price spike driven by oil at roughly $98 per barrel. However, elevated unemployment and barely-positive GDP growth in early 2026 argue against immediate hikes.

Why this matters

The gap between forecasters reflects genuine uncertainty. A single month of oil-driven inflation versus sustained wage pressures could determine whether the Bank holds through 2026 or begins tightening as early as Q4.

Will the Bank of Canada lower its rates again in 2026?

The consensus among major forecasters is no — at least not in 2026. The rapid cutting cycle that characterized 2025 has ended, and the Bank appears to be in a holding pattern as it evaluates lingering inflation and economic contraction risks.

Rate cut probabilities

CORRA forward contracts priced at WOWA.ca show minimal probability of cuts in 2026. Instead, markets assign growing odds to a 0.5% increase sometime in the second half of the year, with Perch Mortgages confirming this market expectation.

Economic indicators

The Canadian economy contracted in Q4 2025 and lost approximately 100,000 jobs in early 2026. These labour market weaknesses typically argue for lower rates, but the Bank has pointed to temporary inflation spikes — particularly from oil prices — as reasons to hold rather than ease further.

Bottom line: Rate cuts in 2026 are off the table according to both official communications and market pricing. The next move, when it comes, is more likely to be up than down.

Will mortgage rates go down in 2026?

Variable-rate mortgages are tied directly to the prime rate, which sits at 4.45% following the March 2026 decision. Fixed rates, however, track government bond yields and have their own dynamics.

Link to overnight rate

Variable-rate borrowers feel the impact of BoC decisions immediately, since the prime rate moves in lockstep with the overnight rate. Fixed-rate borrowers, by contrast, are more exposed to bond market movements — if GoC 5-year bond yields rise as forecast, fixed rates could inch higher even while the BoC holds.

Current mortgage rates

As of late April 2026, 5-year fixed mortgage rates hover around 3.99% according to WOWA.ca, with bond yields hovering near 3.0%. Forecasts from nesto.ca suggest GoC 5-year bond yields could rise from 2.80% to 3.70% by the end of 2026 if economic conditions deteriorate or inflation resurfaces.

The catch

Fixed-rate borrowers may face rising costs even if the BoC holds — bond markets are pricing in future hikes, and lenders adjust fixed offerings accordingly. Variable-rate borrowers, meanwhile, are protected from bond market volatility but exposed to any surprise hikes the Bank might make.

2026 mortgage renewal impact

By the end of 2026, approximately 33% of Canadian mortgage holders are expected to face higher monthly payments upon renewal, according to nesto.ca analysis.

  • 75% of borrowers experiencing payment increases hold 5-year fixed-rate mortgages
  • Average payment increase for 2026 renewals hovers around 20%
  • High-cost provinces like Ontario and British Columbia face the steepest increases due to larger outstanding balances
What to watch

If you are renewing a mortgage in 2026, the difference between a 3.99% fixed rate and a potential 4.5% or higher could translate to hundreds of dollars more per month on a typical mortgage. Locking in a rate now, before bond yields rise further, may be worth considering for those with renewals in late 2026.

Rate decision timeline

Five key milestones define the BoC rate trajectory from late 2025 through 2027.

Date Event Source
October 29, 2025 Rate cut to 2.25% nesto.ca
March 18, 2026 Rate held at 2.25% Bank of Canada
April 29, 2026 Next scheduled announcement Bank of Canada
Q4 2026 Potential first hike WOWA.ca
End 2027 RBC forecast: 3.25% WOWA.ca

The implication: the BoC is in a transitional phase. After aggressively cutting rates through 2025, it is now holding and appears prepared to tighten if inflation — particularly oil-driven — proves stickier than expected.

Confirmed versus uncertain

The following summary separates what is well-documented from what remains in flux.

Confirmed

  • BoC policy rate at 2.25% as of March 18, 2026
  • Prime rate at 4.45%
  • Next announcement April 29, 2026
  • 96% market probability of hold at April 29
  • 33% of mortgage holders face renewal increases in 2026
  • 5-year fixed mortgage rate around 3.99% in April 2026

Uncertain

  • Whether hikes materialize in H2 2026
  • Exact magnitude of any 2026 hikes
  • How persistent oil-driven inflation will be
  • Whether bond yields continue climbing through Q2 2026

“With a recent oil price shock added to the growing list of uncertainties, the Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25%.”

— True North Mortgage (Mortgage Analyst)

“The rapid cutting phase of 2025 is over. The Bank is now in a ‘wait and see’ mode, with the next move likely to be a hike, not a cut.”

— Mortgage Sandbox (Rate Forecaster)

Related reading: Tax Filing Deadline 2025 · Equifax Free Credit Report

Additional sources

youtube.com, myperch.io, bankofcanada.ca

The overnight rate at 2.25%, held in March, continues to influence mortgages as experts outline the next announcement and 2026 forecasts amid steady economic signals.

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Frequently asked questions

What is the Bank of Canada overnight rate?

The overnight rate is the interest rate at which major financial institutions borrow and lend one-day funds among themselves. It directly influences the prime rate that lenders use to price variable-rate mortgages and other loans.

How does the overnight rate affect mortgages?

Variable-rate mortgages are tied to the prime rate, which moves in step with the overnight rate. When the BoC raises the overnight rate, variable-rate borrowers typically see their payments increase. Fixed-rate mortgages track bond yields, which are influenced by longer-term expectations rather than the overnight rate directly.

Where can I check historical rate changes?

The Bank of Canada publishes a historical interest rate tool on its official website at banqueducanada.ca, allowing you to look up every rate decision date and the corresponding policy rate going back years.

What factors influence BoC rate decisions?

The Bank weighs inflation (currently above its 2% target), GDP growth, unemployment, oil prices, and broader economic conditions. In early 2026, oil-driven inflation and weak job growth are pulling in opposite directions, contributing to the hold decision.

What are current mortgage rates from major banks?

As of April 2026, 5-year fixed rates hover around 3.99%. Variable rates remain stable for now, tracking the prime rate at 4.45%, but any BoC hike would push them higher immediately.

When is the next Bank of Canada announcement?

The next announcement is scheduled for April 29, 2026. Markets price a 96% chance the rate stays at 2.25% at that meeting.

How will rate decisions affect the Canadian economy in 2026?

A hold at 2.25% keeps borrowing costs stable for consumers but does not address lingering weakness in GDP growth and employment. If the Bank hikes in H2 2026 as forecast, variable-rate borrowers and businesses with floating-rate debt would face higher costs at a vulnerable economic moment.

For Canadian mortgage holders, the choice between locking into a fixed rate now or staying variable is increasingly consequential. Fixed rates may rise if bond markets anticipate hikes, while variable rates offer stability at current levels — but only until the next BoC decision moves prime. With 33% of renewals facing higher payments by year’s end, acting before late 2026 rate adjustments could mean the difference of hundreds of dollars monthly.