Bank of Canada Key Rate: Next Announcement & 2026 Forecasts

The Bank of Canada has pressed pause on its rate-cutting cycle, leaving Canada’s variable-rate borrowers in a holding pattern. The overnight rate sits at 2.25% — unchanged since last October — and the next scheduled update lands April 29. The real question: does this pause stretch into summer, or do the bank’s own surveys suggest the next move is up?

Current Overnight Target Rate: 2.25% · Bank Rate: 2.50% · Last Update: December 2025 · Next Potential Announcement: March 18, 2026 · Deposit Rate: 2.00%

When is the next Bank of Canada key rate?

The next Bank of Canada key rate announcement falls on Wednesday, April 29, 2026 at 09:45 ET (Perch Mortgages). Bond markets are pricing a 96% probability that the rate holds at 2.25% at that meeting (WOWA.ca), with only a 5% chance of a 25bp cut.

Announcement schedule

The Bank of Canada publishes its fixed decision schedule in advance, giving markets and borrowers predictability. Eight announcements are scheduled for 2026, occurring roughly every six to seven weeks (Equals Money). All release at 09:45 ET, with a press conference following at approximately 10:30 ET.

• January 28, 2026 — Rate held at 2.25%
• March 18, 2026 — Rate held at 2.25%
• April 29, 2026 — Next scheduled update
• June 10, 2026
• July 15, 2026
• September 2, 2026
• October 28, 2026
• December 9, 2026

The full schedule comes directly from the Bank of Canada’s official publication in April 2026 (Bank of Canada), which also confirmed the four Monetary Policy Report releases paired with January, April, July, and October announcements.

Recent decisions

The rate has remained at 2.25% since the October 29, 2025 cut from 2.5% (RBC Royal Bank). Both the January 28 and March 18, 2026 announcements maintained that level, in line with market expectations.

TD Economics noted that the March 2026 hold aligned with consensus forecasts, with the bank’s statement citing weaker economic activity as the reason for holding steady (TD Economics). The Governing Council also removed language suggesting rates were “remains appropriate,” adopting a more data-dependent posture.

What are the Bank of Canada key rate forecasts for 2026?

Market-implied probabilities offer one window into what the rate path might look like. According to CORRA forwards and bond market pricing tracked by WOWA.ca, the trajectory shifts notably across the year.

Expert predictions

• April 29, 2026: 96% probability of hold at 2.25%
• June 10, 2026: 96% likelihood of 2.25%
• September 2, 2026: 20% chance of 2.5% rate (hike)
• October 28, 2026: 53% probability of 2.5% rate (hike)

Most economists surveyed by Reuters expect a steady rate through 2026, with potential hikes appearing more likely in 2027 than 2026 (Equals Money). Analysts from TD Economics have noted the hold at 2.25% reflects the bank’s wait-and-see stance rather than a commitment to further cuts.

Economic factors

The Bank of Canada’s Governing Council has flagged inflation trajectory and economic growth as the primary decision drivers. The 2% inflation target serves as the benchmark — if price pressures re-accelerate, the bank retains the flexibility to raise rates. The Reuters poll supports a view that the current 2.25% level is appropriate for now, though the window for further cuts appears to be closing.

The implication: borrowers banking on lower rates should monitor second-quarter GDP figures and the April Monetary Policy Report closely. Those data releases will shape whether the bank signals a pivot or maintains its hold.

Will the Bank of Canada lower rates again in 2026?

Based on current market pricing, further cuts in 2026 look unlikely. Bond markets price virtually no cut probability for the April 29 meeting (nesto.ca), and nesto.ca’s analysis explicitly notes “no further cuts expected in 2026.”

Historical trends

The most recent move was a 25bp cut on October 29, 2025 — the first reduction in the current cycle. That brought the rate from 2.5% to the current 2.25% level. Before that cut, the bank had maintained 2.5% following a series of holds, as inflation moderated toward the 2% target.

The Bank of Canada’s policy rate decisions are predetermined after each economic review cycle, with the Governing Council assessing inflation trends, employment data, and GDP growth before each announcement (RBC Royal Bank).

Current outlook

The Reuters poll most economists expect a steady rate through 2026 (Equals Money). Market instruments now price a non-trivial hike probability by year-end — 53% on October 28 — suggesting traders see the pause as a precursor to tightening rather than a prolonged hold.

What this means: Canadian homeowners with variable-rate mortgages should budget for the possibility that their rates could rise before 2027 if inflation data deteriorates. Fixed-rate borrowers are insulated, but those renewing into variable products face asymmetric risk.

Bank of Canada key rate announcement calendar

Eight fixed decision dates anchor the Bank of Canada’s annual calendar. The bank publishes the full schedule months in advance, allowing financial institutions, mortgage brokers, and borrowers to plan accordingly.

2026 dates

Here are all eight Bank of Canada interest rate announcements scheduled for 2026, along with whether each includes a full Monetary Policy Report.

Press conferences follow each announcement at approximately 10:30 ET, where Governor Tiff Macklem and senior officials field questions on the policy decision and economic outlook.

Historical changes

The Bank of Canada’s rate history over the past two years shows a clear easing cycle. After raising rates aggressively in 2022 and 2023 to combat inflation, the bank shifted to a holding pattern before cutting 25bp in October 2025. The next cut hasn’t materialized — instead, the bank is watching for signs that the current stance is appropriately calibrated.

The Business Outlook Survey releases (January 19, April 20, July 6, October 19) provide qualitative signals on business sentiment and investment intentions that inform each rate decision (Bank of Canada).

Will mortgage rates go down in 2026?

For most Canadian borrowers, the outlook for mortgage rate relief in 2026 is dim. While the overnight rate has stabilized, the link between policy rate and mortgage costs depends on whether lenders expect further cuts or a potential hike.

Link to key rate

Variable-rate mortgages and home equity lines of credit (HELOCs) move directly with the Bank of Canada’s overnight rate. As of the March 18 hold, the prime rate sits at 4.45% (nesto.ca), which most lenders use as the baseline for variable products.

Fixed mortgage rates, meanwhile, follow bond yields — which have already priced in the hike probability by year-end. That means fixed-rate borrowers may not see the relief they might expect from the current policy rate hold.

Current fixed rates

According to nesto.ca’s monitoring, best-available fixed rates from major lenders range from approximately 4.54% to 5.29% for five-year terms. These rates already embed market expectations of a steady or slightly higher overnight rate through 2026.

The pattern: 2026 mortgage rate relief looks unlikely unless inflation drops sharply or the economic outlook weakens materially. Borrowers should plan for rate stability or modest increases, not cuts.

The TD Economics assessment reflects broad consensus: the rate pause is real, and the bank is actively managing the tension between cooling inflation and a slowing economy. The Governing Council’s statement, meanwhile, signals flexibility rather than commitment — a hallmark of data-dependent policy.

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